What is the real inflation in Serbia?
Many people have the impression that the real inflation rate in Serbia is higher than official statistics show due to the increase in food prices.
According to official statistical data, year-on-year inflation in July in Serbia was 3.3% and since the beginning of the year, i.e. compared to December 2020, it was 3.7 %. Food, fuel and cigarettes have become more expensive due to the semi-annual adjustment of excise taxes and many say that because of this inflation seems even higher.
Milojko Arsić, professor at Belgrade’s Faculty of Economics, said Serbs had previously doubted official inflation figures, although he considered them relatively reliable. It’s more about the perception that the products they buy have become more expensive because the prices of tens of thousands of other products have not gone up. Fuel prices, for example, have gone up, as have the cost of building materials.
“Prices are also increasing in other countries. These are disruptions in supply chains due to the pandemic. On the other hand, it is possible that such a widespread increase in prices is a consequence of the large fiscal and monetary expansion implemented by central banks and governments. Central banks printed a lot of money and governments also distributed a lot of money to alleviate the crisis. The money supply has grown much faster than production, ”says Arsić.
According to him, it is possible that inflation will be slightly higher than the announced 3.3%, but it will not reach the double digits.
This article is also available in: Italiano