THRAN – A Russian expert believes that China and Russia would strengthen their alliance in the event of Western sanctions against Moscow.

“The days of the world’s only superpower are over,” Stanislav Mitrakhovich of the National Energy Security Fund and Financial University told the Tehran Times.

“China and Russia are strengthening their alliance which is almost formed. Pushing Russia even closer to China would be a very big mistake by the West.

US President Joe Biden said he was “convinced” that Russian Vladimir Putin made the decision to invade Ukraine, warning Moscow against starting what he called a “war of choice” that would catastrophic.

But the US president said the door to diplomacy remains open. Until war breaks out, “diplomacy is always a possibility,” Biden told reporters on Friday.

Since November 2021, NATO and EU officials have repeatedly raised concerns about Russia’s military concentration, warning that Moscow will face serious consequences and heavy sanctions if Ukraine is attacked. .

“As for tough sanctions, if they exclude blockade of trade (including energy), then those sanctions are not tough by design. If sanctions target electronics as the biggest threat, China will inevitably help Russia, even if it takes time and effort to organize technology transfer,” Mitrakhovich notes.

Here is the text of the interview:

Q: How do you assess the current escalation between Russia and NATO over Ukraine?

A: The only reasonable scenario in which Russia could militarily interfere in Ukrainian crises is an attack by Ukrainian military forces on the breakaway regions of Donetsk and Luhansk. It’s just a way to prevent an Operation “Storm” type scenario like Croatia in 1995 against the Republic of Serbian Krajina.

Q: What are the fallout from a military confrontation in Ukraine?

A: Moscow shows capability (including even “armed arguments”) to prevent any possibility for Ukraine to join NATO in the future. And everything works. Putin wants Ukraine out of NATO, and he basically gets what he wants. At the same time, military rhetoric and hysteria in the Western media are driving up oil and gas prices. The American and Western rhetoric of a possible and almost imminent invasion is seriously damaging the Ukrainian economy. Some airlines stop flying to Ukraine. What about advertised tourists and investment attractions in Ukraine? Let’s take an example: Mercedes recently built its car assembly plant in Russia, not Ukraine.

NATO does not include Russia; this means that Russia is excluded from the European system of strategic stability, ie an unsustainable type of security system.

Q: Is Ukraine ready to pay the costs of the war?

Ukraine is dependent on the Russian gas it transports. Without this gas transit, Ukraine cannot maintain basic energy infrastructure.

Ukraine is extremely dependent on Russian coal for metallurgy and diesel from Belarus (which is a Russian ally). Ukraine depends on electricity imports from Belarus.

Many questions remain unanswered in Kiev and in NATO capitals. If Ukraine is ready to fight, as we are told, why not take control of Crimea?

If there has been a Russian invasion before, or if this is an ongoing Russian invasion, then why wait with sanctions? The West and Ukraine are confused with their own narratives.

Q: How do the Ukrainian public view the current escalation?

There is no unified public opinion in Ukraine. A large number of people have relatives or friends in Russia. A strong pro-Russian element exists within the population of eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian artists and bloggers work for Russian-speaking audiences in several countries, including Russia. The Russian market is therefore important for them. Don’t misunderstand the rhetoric of Ukrainian activists speaking to genuine public opinion (which is actually deeply divided).

Q: Do you predict that Western powers, including the United States, will intervene in any military confrontation over Ukraine?

A: America will not fight for Ukraine. Do Americans or Europeans really want to make a body bag for Ukraine? The answer is very clear “no”.

American public opinion does not support American military intervention in the Ukrainian crisis. Public opinion will say: don’t get involved.

Ukraine doesn’t matter as much to America as it does to Russia, so for Moscow it will be natural to raise the stakes (the same can’t be said for America).

NATO and the EU are not united. Take note of the fact that the Hungarian Prime Minister is visiting Moscow and talking about a new gas contract.

Q: What would be the fallout from harsh US sanctions on Russian banks?

A: As for severe sanctions, if they exclude trade blockade (including energy), then these sanctions are not severe by design. If sanctions target electronics as the biggest threat, China will inevitably help Russia, even if it takes time and effort to organize a technology transfer.

The days of the world’s only superpower are over. China and Russia are strengthening their alliance which is almost formed. Bringing Russia even closer to China would be a super big mistake by the West.