Editor’s note: Nikola Mikovic is a freelance journalist based in Serbia. He mainly covers Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian foreign policies and writes for several web magazines. The article reflects the views of the author, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

For Russia, Hungary and Serbia are “truly sovereign countries”. From a Western perspective, both European nations are ruled by “pro-Russian populists”. The truth, as usual, lies somewhere in between.

As a member of the European Union, Hungary is unlikely to be portrayed as a fully sovereign country, as EU countries cede to Brussels some of the powers that sovereignty protects, such as budgeting national as well as immigration and work permit laws. Yet the Central European country pursues a relatively sovereign foreign policy. Budapest refuses to take in refugees from the Middle East and opposes the EU pact on migration and asylum, drawing criticism from Brussels.

Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban on his election, even when Hungary did not veto EU sanctions against Russia. The nation has found itself on the Kremlin’s “hostile countries” list, although Budapest still seems to get “special treatment” from Moscow.

Unlike Hungary, Serbia remains one of the few European countries that has not imposed any sanctions on the Russian Federation. Just like its northern neighbour, the Balkan nation held general elections on April 3 – the ruling Serbian Progressive Party won the majority of seats in parliament, while party leader Aleksandar Vucic won his second term. consecutive to the presidency.

Although Western media tend to present Vucic as “Putin’s ally”, it should be noted that the American ambassador to Serbia, Christopher Hill, praised the Serbian leader, while the State Department praised the Serbian election results.

Yet the West seems to continue to indirectly pressure Serbia to change its foreign policy vector. According to reports, the transport of crude oil from EU member Croatia for the Serbian oil company NIS will cease on May 15 due to EU sanctions against Russian companies.

Russian energy giant Gazprom Neft owns 56.15% of NIS’ share capital, while a 29.87% stake is held by the Serbian state. The fourth EU sanctions package prohibits European companies from cooperating with a number of Russian companies, including Gazprom Neft and its subsidiaries in which it holds more than 50% of the shares.

In order to avoid the oil embargo, Serbia could be forced to nationalize the NIS, which would undoubtedly jeopardize Belgrade’s relations with Moscow. Alternatively, the Balkan country could start transporting crude oil by rail from various Adriatic and Black Sea ports, although this would cost significantly more than getting oil from neighboring Croatia. Thus, Serbia has more than a month to make a decision, and it will certainly not be easy.

Politically, Serbia and Hungary are deep in Western geopolitical orbit. Militarily, Serbia is a neutral country, while Hungary is a member of NATO. The United States is unlikely to ask Belgrade to join NATO anytime soon, if at all, and given that Ukraine continues to receive large quantities of weapons via Poland, it is not it is not necessary for Washington and its allies to put pressure on Budapest to authorize the transit of arms through Hungary. territory.

The West, however, should continue to pressure Belgrade to distance itself from the Kremlin. Although Serbia supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and has condemned Russia’s actions in the Eastern European country, Washington and Brussels would expect Belgrade to openly side with the EU. West against Moscow. Such a decision, however, would add Serbia to the list of countries that pursue an “unfriendly” policy towards Russia, and would have a negative impact on the Balkan nation’s energy cooperation with Moscow.

Following the agreement between Putin and Vucic, concluded in November 2021, Serbia pays $270 per 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas from Russia, which is significantly lower than the current market price. Also, since Serbia has not joined the anti-Russian sanctions, Belgrade is not obliged to open a ruble account in Russian banks, but can continue to buy Russian energy in US dollars. . But if Serbia, under pressure from the West, finally decides to impose sanctions on Russia, relatively cheap energy will almost certainly become a thing of the past.

Unlike Hungary, Serbia is not a member of the European Union, which means that it cannot rely on EU funds – or at least not in huge volume – to overcome an economic crisis. potential that would result from an energy crisis. As a result, Belgrade is still trying to balance Moscow and the West, even as its political room for maneuver is shrinking. The coming days and weeks will show whether Serbia will find a way to maintain good relations with both sides.

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