Focus on US prices after the disappointment of employment: Eco Week
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By Vince Golle
(Bloomberg) –
Inflation and retail sales reports receive number one spot on the US economic calendar this coming week, following surprisingly disappointing employment figures.
The consumer price index excluding the volatile components of food and energy is expected to rise 0.3% in April, matching the advance of the previous month and signaling subdued inflation. While the CPI will accelerate sharply from a year earlier, when the pandemic depressed activity, Federal Reserve policymakers are taking the increases in stride.
The numbers will help show the extent to which soaring commodity and material prices are being passed on to households. Wednesday’s Labor Department report precedes figures on weekend retail demand.
Economists predict that the value of purchases at U.S. retailers climbed 1% last month after a March surge that was the largest in 10 months and fueled by a new round of government stimulus checks.
What Bloomberg Economics Says:
“Concerns about inflationary pressures pushing the Fed ahead of schedule should ease in light of the latest labor market data indicating significantly less progress towards pre-pandemic trends. A sharp acceleration in core inflation above 2% in the much-watched April CPI report will be ruled out due to the much vaunted base effects and a transitory mix of pull factors from demand and cost. “
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–Yelena Shulyatyeva, Andrew Husby and Eliza Winger. For a full overview, click here
Industrial production, the number of job vacancies and prices paid to producers round out a wave of US economic data.
Elsewhere, China will also release inflation data, while Australia’s federal budget will be revealed, UK releases report on gross domestic product and central banks in Mexico, Chile, Peru, from Romania and Serbia make interest rate decisions.
Click here to see what happened over the past week and here’s our roundup of what’s happening in the global economy.
United States and Canada
US economic data will be closely watched by the dozen or so Fed officials who will make public appearances throughout the week. Speakers scheduled include Chicago Fed Chairman Charles Evans, New York Fed Chairman John Williams, San Francisco Fed Chairman Mary Daly and Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida.
In Canada, central bank chief Tiff Macklem will deliver his first speech since last month’s decision to cut his quantitative easing program.
For more information, read the full upcoming week of Bloomberg Economics for the United States.
Asia
Australia will announce its federal budget for the year starting July 1 on Tuesday, with a rapid recovery in the job market and soaring iron ore prices that will reduce its previously announced deficit and give Prime Minister Scott Morrison more flexibility to support recovery with targeted programs. This budget will include more spending to improve women’s economic and health outcomes, said Australian Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.
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It’s the same day that China releases consumer and factory inflation data that should show producer prices accelerating, adding to global inflationary pressures. Census results will also be released this week, after a delay in the report raised concerns that China’s population may have declined for the first time in modern records.
With the ongoing state of emergency in Tokyo and some other major cities extended until the end of May, Japanese household spending figures for March will show the impact of the last days of a previous emergency on the cords. of the handbag before the first. Quarterly GDP later this month.
A summary from the Bank of Japan’s latest meeting could further shed light on the thinking behind its latest economic forecast showing a lack of inflation spark.
South Korea’s unemployment figures released on Wednesday will indicate the strength of the country’s labor market recovery.
For more information, read Bloomberg Economics’ full week for Asia.
Europe, Middle East, Africa
Britain’s economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis likely began in the first quarter, a change GDP data on Wednesday is likely to confirm.
While production has almost certainly declined over the entire period, the monthly result for March could show a sharp increase, marking a first boost in growth, as vaccinations have helped the UK chart a path out of the pandemic. The Bank of England now estimates that the economy will reach its pre-crisis level before the end of the year, a quarter earlier than expected.
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The eurozone’s recovery is less advanced than that of the UK after an abortive start to vaccine deployments, but the ramping up of vaccinations means that expansion has likely resumed there. Whether such progress is enough to improve the outlook for the year as a whole is a question the European Commission will attempt to answer when it releases new growth forecasts on Wednesday.
Elsewhere in Europe, the Romanian and Serbian central banks are both expected to keep rates unchanged. Meanwhile, Hungarian inflation data will likely show a surge above the central bank’s upper tolerance band, testing the resolve of policymakers to keep borrowing costs in limbo.
Turkey is expected to report that its current account deficit widened in March to $ 3.8 billion. Investors are watching this data closely amid concerns about the level of the country’s foreign exchange reserves.
Ghanaian data will likely show inflation at the lowest level for over a year, in line with the central bank’s forecast of a return to the center of the 6% to 10% target range in the current quarter. .
To learn more, read the full upcoming week of Bloomberg Economics for the EMEA region.
Latin America
On Tuesday, the April reading of Brazil’s core inflation index may well see the year-over-year figure surpassing 7%, well outside the target range of 2.25% at 5, 25%.
Mexico’s March industrial production report released Wednesday has some analysts looking for the first year-over-year expansion since the start of 2019.
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April’s inflation data for Argentina and metropolitan Buenos Aires on Thursday could look a lot like March, when monthly readings were 4.8% and 5.2%, respectively.
Then, within five hours on Thursday, the central banks of Mexico, Chile and Peru announce rate decisions, but outside of Banxico’s potentially hawkish language, seek all three to keep their key rates at levels. records or almost.
Colombia releases the first quarter output data on Friday. In recent months, the central bank and a host of analysts had marked their growth forecasts for 2021, but a deadly new phase in the pandemic and violent street protests against proposed tax hikes that forced the minister Finance to leave the country may have clouded the outlook.
For more information, read the full upcoming week of Bloomberg Economics for Latin America.
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