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Home›Serbian banks›EEC Markets-Rate hike expectations support the forint and zloty as central banks fight inflation

EEC Markets-Rate hike expectations support the forint and zloty as central banks fight inflation

By Corey Owens
December 6, 2021
0
0


Band Anita Komuves

BUDAPEST, December 6 (Reuters) – Most central European currencies strengthened on Monday, supported by expectations of further interest rate hikes in Hungary and Poland later this week as the region’s central banks grapple with rising inflation .

The Hungarian forint EURHUF = gained 0.48% and traded at 363.32 per euro as markets expected a further hike in the one-week deposit rate on Thursday during the central bank’s weekly tender, said two FX traders in Budapest.

“Markets are also anticipating further rate hikes this week in Hungary and Poland, pushing up CEE region currencies,” one trader said. “The overall mood is also a bit brighter.”

On Thursday, the forint hit a three-week high after the bank raised rates for the fifth time in less than three weeks to contain rising inflation.

Investors are also keeping an eye on key November inflation data for Hungary to be released on Wednesday. Headline inflation for November is expected at 7.3% per year, according to a Reuters poll.

The Polish zloty EURPLN = was 0.2% stronger and traded at 4.5880 per euro as markets awaited the central bank’s rate-setting meeting on Wednesday, where a Reuters survey of analysts expects prices to rise. rate of 50 basis points.

Last month, the Polish central bank surprised markets with a massive 75 basis point rise to 1.25%. Central Bank Governor Adam Glapinksi said last week that it was possible to raise interest rates, but not indefinitely.

“We would be surprised if the MPC chooses a rate hike of less than 50 basis points, especially in light of stubbornly high core inflation,” Citi wrote in a research note.

Czech crown EURCZK = added 0.17% and was trading at 25.380 against the common currency.

In the Czech Republic, markets lowered their rate hike expectations in late November after central bank governor Jiri Rusnok told Reuters he saw rate hikes closer to the standard 25-point move. based.

The head of the CNB’s monetary department, Petr Kral, said in an interview published on Monday that the market price level on the new Czech interest rate hikes was in line with the central bank’s forecast.

Stocks in the region have strengthened, with Bucharest .BETI adding 0.73%. Prague .PX was 0.63% higher, while Warsaw .WIG20 reinforced by 0.7%.

Budapest .BUX led gains adding 0.79%. Hungary’s OTP bank OTPB.BU was 1.41% higher at 09:27 GMT after announcing it had signed an agreement to buy Albanian bank Alpha.

CEEC MARKETS

INSTANTANEOUS

At 1020 CET

COINS

Latest

Previous

Daily

Switch

offer

close

hum

in 2021

EURCZK =

czech crown

EURCZK =

25.3800

25.4230

+ 0.17%

+ 3.35%

EURHUF =

Hungarian forint

EURHUF =

363.3200

365.0500

+ 0.48%

-0.17%

EURPLN =

Polish zloty

EURPLN =

4.5880

4.5973

+ 0.20%

-0.63%

EURRON =

leu in Romanian

EURRON =

4.9491

4.9485

-0.01%

-1.70%

EURHRK =

Croatian Kuna

EURHRK =

7.5250

7.5265

+ 0.02%

+ 0.30%

EURRSD =

Serbian dinar

EURRSD =

117.4800

117.5800

+ 0.09%

+ 0.08%

Note: daily change

calculated from

1800 CET

Latest

Previous

Daily

Switch

close

cash

in 2021

.PX

Prague

.PX

1371.40

1362.7900

+ 0.63%

+ 33.52%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

51307.69

50904.91

+ 0.79%

+ 21.85%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2194.93

2179.71

+ 0.70%

+ 10.63%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

12469.37

12379.50

+ 0.73%

+ 27.17%

.SBITOP

Ljubljana

.SBITOP

1221.41

1221.16

+ 0.02%

+ 35.58%

.CRBEX

Zagreb

.CRBEX

1993.20

1993.37

-0.01%

+ 14.60%

.BELEX15

Belgrade

.BELEX15

831.26

833.64

-0.29%

+ 11.04%

.SOFIX

Sofia

.SOFIX

620.27

624.54

-0.68%

+ 38.60%

Yield

Yield

Broadcast

Daily

(offer)

cash

against the Bund

switch

Czech Republic

broadcast

CZ2YT = RR

2 years

CZ2YT = RR

2.8770

0.0030

+ 361bps

-1bps

CZ5YT = RR

5 years

CZ5YT = RR

2.7050

0.0060

+ 333bps

+ 0bps

CZ10YT = RR

10 years

CZ10YT = RR

2.5850

0.0000

+ 296bps

+ 0bps

Poland

PL2YT = RR

2 years

PL2YT = RR

3.0020

-0.0070

+ 373bps

-2bps

PL5YT = RR

5 years

PL5YT = RR

3.4380

0.1060

+ 406bps

+ 10bps

PL10YT = RR

10 years

PL10YT = RR

3.2920

0.0700

+ 367bps

+ 7bps

CHEEKY

3×6

6×9

9×12

3M Interbank

Czech Republic

CZKFRAPRIBOUR =

3.95

3.95

3.88

3.20

Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR =

4.50

4.53

4.50

3.47

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR =

3.24

3.42

3.41

2.21

Note: quotes from FRA

are for the asking prices

*************************************************** ****** ************

(Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Amy Caren Daniel)

((komuves.anita@thomsonreuters.com) (+ 36 70 795 8815))

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


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