EEC-Krona MARKETS: Czech tightening results in foreign exchange outperformance in 2021
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BIn contrast, the Hungarian forint EURHUF = weakened by around 1.5% against the euro in 2021, while the Polish zloty EURPLN = lost about 0.8%.
“The Czech central bank is continuing a very aggressive monetary tightening cycle,” said Piotr Bartkiewicz, economist at Pekao in Warsaw. “The other two central banks in the region (Hungary and Poland) were applying an inadequate tightening or were hesitant, like the National Bank of Poland.”
The Polish central bank raised rates much later than its counterparts in the Czech Republic and Hungary, making its first hike in October.
Meanwhile, the National Bank of Hungary used more gradual adjustments to its interest rate corridor, sometimes generating lower increases than markets had expected.
Another factor that weighed on the zloty and forint in 2021 was disputes between the European Union and the governments of Warsaw and Budapest over issues such as the rule of law, a dispute that delayed the disbursement of funds. COVID-19 stimulus fund.
“Looking ahead to next year, as growth cycles wind down, I expect external flows to come back to the fore,†said Malin Rosengren, portfolio manager at BlueBay Asset Management. “Here, I think PLN and HUF will be challenged as the EU funding block grows larger.”
CEEC MARKETS
INSTANTANEOUS
At 1143 CET
COINS
Last
Previous
Daily
Change
bid
Close
cash
in 2021
czech crown
EURCZK =
24.8590
24.8750
+ 0.06%
+ 5.51%
Hungarian forint
EURHUF =
369.1000
369.0500
-0.01%
-1.73%
Polish zloty
EURPLN =
4.5952
4.5890
-0.13%
-0.78%
leu in Romanian
EURRON =
4.9485
4.9495
+ 0.02%
-1.69%
Croatian Kuna
EURHRK =
7.5120
7.5225
+ 0.14%
+ 0.47%
Serbian dinar
EURRSD =
117.4800
117.5800
+ 0.09%
+ 0.08%
Note: daily change
calculated from
1800 CET
Last
Previous
Daily
Change
Close
cash
in 2021
Prague
.PX
1426.03
1426.0300
+ 0.00%
+ 38.84%
Budapest
.BUX
50720.71
50720.71
+ 0.00%
+ 20.46%
Warsaw
.WIG20
2266.92
2266.92
+ 0.00%
+ 14.26%
Bucharest
.BETI
13061.32
13061.32
+ 0.00%
+ 33.20%
Ljubljana
.SBITOP
1258.80
1255.47
+ 0.27%
+ 39.73%
Zagreb
.CRBEX
2079.35
2079.35
+ 0.00%
+ 19.55%
Belgrade
.BELEX15
820.78
820.78
+ 0.00%
+ 9.64%
Sofia
.SOFIX
635.68
635.68
+ 0.00%
+ 42.04%
Yield
Yield
Propagated
Daily
(bid)
cash
against the Bund
change
Czech Republic
spread
2 years
CZ2YT = RR
3.7390
0.0000
+ 438bps
+ 3bps
5 years
CZ5YT = RR
3.3510
0.0000
+ 380bps
+ 0bps
10 years
CZ10YT = RR
2.9770
0.0000
+ 316bps
+ 0bps
Poland
2 years
PL2YT = RR
3.3460
-0.0160
+ 398bps
+ 1bps
5 years
PL5YT = RR
3.9880
0.0200
+ 444bps
+ 2bps
10 years
PL10YT = RR
3.7050
0.0030
+ 388bps
+ 0bps
CHEEKY
3×6
6×9
9×12
3M Interbank
Czech Republic
CZKFRAPRIBOUR =
4.61
4.13
3.99
4.07
Hungary
HUFFRABUBOR =
5.23
5.38
5.39
4.21
Poland
PLNFRAWIBOR =
3.90
4.21
4.14
2.51
Note: quotes from FRA
are for the asking prices
*************************************************** ****** ************
(Reporting by Alan Charlish in Warsaw; Editing by Alex Richardson)
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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