Bloomberg

Power outages threaten the western United States this summer as the heat awaits

(Bloomberg) – They hit California first, then Texas. Now, blackouts threaten the entire western US as nearly a dozen states head into summer with too little electricity; from New Mexico to Washington, power grids are strained test by forces that have been brewing for years – some fueled by climate change, others by the fight against it. If a heat wave hits the entire region at once, the blackouts that plagued southern California and Silicon Valley last August will have been previews, not moats. “It’s really the same in different parts of the West,” said Elliot Mainzer, chief executive officer of the California Independent System Operator, which manages most of the state’s grid. “It revealed competition for scarce resources that we haven’t seen for some time.” The specter of power outages highlights a paradox of the clean energy transition: Extreme weather conditions fueled by climate change expose cracks in society’s abandonment of fossil fuels, even as this shift is supposed to. contain the worst of global warming. States shutting down coal and gas-fired power plants are simply not replacing them quickly enough to keep pace with the vagaries of an unstable climate, and the region’s existing power infrastructure is woefully vulnerable to wildfires (which threaten transmission lines), drought (which undermines). California grid managers on Wednesday warned that although they are better positioned than last summer, the risk of power shortages in extreme heat remains an obvious possibility. Forest fires, which already start after a dry winter, could add to the danger if they threaten transmission lines. “We are heading into another very dangerous year of fire,” US Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack said in a briefing Thursday. “We’re seeing a higher level of risk and an earlier level risk.” For many, California’s energy crisis in 2020 was the first indication of the severity of the regional energy deficit. While power outages have highlighted the state’s reliance on solar power – a resource that dwindles at night as demand increases – an equally significant issue was California’s dependence on solar power. regard to imported electricity. Utilities routinely source power out of state, drawing power through high-voltage transmission lines where it’s needed. But last summer, neighboring states facing the same heat wave as California struggled to keep their own lights on and imports were hard to come by, and this year that dynamic is playing out on a larger scale. All over the West, states have become dependent on importing energy from each other. It works well in temperate weather, when the demand for electricity is relatively low. But that’s a problem when a widespread heat wave covers the entire region. The Western Electricity Coordinating Council, which oversees power grids throughout the western United States and Canada, estimates that without imports Nevada, Utah and Colorado could run out of power for hundreds of hours this year, or the equivalent of 34 days. Arizona and New Mexico could be short for enough hours to add up to 17 days, according to a report from the organization that looked at worst-case scenarios to help states make plans to avoid potential blackouts. Phoenix problem, ”said Jordan White, vice president of strategic engagement for the group, known as WECC. “Everyone is chasing the same number of megawatts.” While power outages are not a guarantee in any region, traders are already betting on supply shortages and driving up electricity prices across the West. At the heavily negotiated Palo Verde hub in Arizona, prices have nearly quadrupled since the blackouts last summer, while the Mid-Columbia hub in the Pacific Northwest has tripled. “We are already seeing record prices in the West, some of which can be attributed to a fear factor being factored in,” said JP McMahon, a market associate for Wood Mackenzie. “Last year was a bit of a wake-up call.” The reasons for this shortfall are twofold: climate change makes it more difficult to forecast electricity demand while the switch to clean energy is straining electricity supplies. Managers could once count on predictable season-to-season consumption patterns – more air conditioners in August, fewer in October – they now count with record summers and historic winter storms that cause large and unexpected surges in winter. Requirement. It’s getting hard to pull out the crystal ball to know for sure how hot it will be, ”White said. At the same time, older coal and gas-fired power plants capable of providing electricity around the clock are being pushed out by climate change regulations and their own declining profitability. In the West, electricity production from these plants fell 6% from 2010 to 2018, according to WECC. While wind and solar capacity has more than tripled in the region, the production of these resources varies hourly, making them more difficult to use during an unexpected slump in demand. Massive batteries can help make up the difference, but their installation is only just beginning – it’s a global phenomenon. This summer, Sweden is bracing for power outages and reducing its electricity exports after nuclear withdrawals left the country with too little spare capacity to compensate for sharp swings in demand. In China last winter, even a surplus of coal-fired power plants could not keep the lights on during a strong blast of cold. At this point, no sub-region in WECC’s coverage area produces enough electricity to meet its own needs during periods of high demand; They all rely on imports to avoid blackouts. In the aftermath of the California crisis, utilities signed contracts for more emergency power supplies and are trying to make sure they don’t rely on the same suppliers as everyone else. Some entities, including the Imperial Irrigation District of Southern California, are working to reduce their dependence on imports. But it’s not clear that all utilities in high-risk areas are planning to do much differently. The situation is, if not dire, drawing closer. Temperatures in the west are expected to be above average throughout the summer, with the worst heat hitting the southwest. More than 84% of the land in the 11 western states is in the grip of drought. Following the blackouts of last summer, California is among the best placed at the dawn of summer. The state plugs around 1,500 megawatts of batteries into the grid, postponed the decommissioning of several aging gas plants, and raised the price cap for electricity trade to encourage imports if external supplies are needed and available. Even though imports are readily available to those who need them, there is no guarantee that transmission lines will be able to transport these electrons to where they need to go. Extreme weather conditions can destroy high-voltage conduits that connect western states, and wildfires are known to have destroyed transmission lines. Although it received little attention at the time, a major transmission line in the Pacific Northwest that suffered damage in a storm last spring limited the flow of electricity to California. throughout the summer energy crisis. network operator, said other states can learn from the West’s dilemma. They should conserve a variety of resources when decarbonizing, learn to balance the daily rhythms of solar and wind power, and not move too quickly to shut down old gas-fired power plants that can provide electricity in a pinch. “We forget we’re still learning a lot about how to make a system like this work,” said Florio. “We probably want to keep our existing gas capacity, at least in reserve. It can be used less, but what is already built is cheap insurance. (Adds quote from US Secretary of Agriculture in sixth paragraph.) For more articles like this, please visit us on the bloomberg.com news source. © 2021 Bloomberg LP