CEE MARKETS-Zloty Leads Regional Currency Gains, Markets Consider Rate Meeting

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By Radu-Sorin Marinas BUCHAREST, Oct 4 (Reuters) – Central European currencies edged up at the start of Monday’s session as the Polish zloty hit a nearly three-week high amid rising expectations of a rise rates despite Poland’s resistance to any tightening so far, fearing it could hurt an economic recovery. At 08:20 GMT, the zloty was up 0.30%, trading at 4.5640 per euro, followed by the forint which was 0.20% firmer at 356.18 and the Czech crown with a lead from 0.1% to 25.2820. The Romanian leu was stable at 4.9475. “Locally, investors will focus on the Monetary Policy Council meeting (Wednesday) and the likely conference of the President of the National Bank of Poland,” Bank Millennium said in a note. The market has significantly increased the likelihood of a normalization of monetary policy this year after the higher than expected reading of consumer price inflation last week. “Interest rates will not change, and the focus will be on (Governor) GlapiÅski’s comments and the press release after the meeting … extremely important to market expectations for the start of monetary tightening in Poland”, Millennium said. Polish inflation rose again in September to 5.8%, according to a quick estimate on Friday, raising bets that rates could rise before the end of the year. In Hungary, analysts see the currency undergo a correction after last Friday’s jump triggered by comments from Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag who signaled further rate hikes of 15 basis points in the coming months as inflationary pressures continue to rise. âThe forint is in a correction. Reacting to signs from the central bank on Friday, the correction continues, in the euro-forint rate the next major support level is at 356.38, the 200-day moving average. is broken, the next target could be 352, “wrote brokerage firm Equilor. Stock markets were led by Prague, up 0.63%, where Czech power company CEZ hit a new high on Monday year, supported by rising energy prices. Analysts say rising energy prices are stoking inflation in several emerging markets, testing the resolve of their central banks and threatening to stall growth Hungary, Poland and Czech Republic and more currency weakness in Turkey SNAPSHOT OF EEC MARKETS 1035 CET CURRENCY Last daily change previous change of supply close in 2021 Czech 25.2820 25.3050 + 0.09% +3, 75% Hungarian krone 356.4000 356.8900 + 0.14% + 1.77% Polish forint 4.5650 4.5789 + 0.30% -0.13% Romanian zloty 4.9475 4.9451 -0.05% – 1.67% Croatian leu 7.4920 7.4985 + 0.09% + 0.74% Serbian kuna 117.4800 117.5800 + 0.09% + 0.08% dinar 30.23 0% Budapest 53561.81 53589, 80 -0.05% + 27.20% Warsaw 2,319.64 2,327.88 -0.35% + 16.92% Bucharest 12,632.84 12,633.19 -0.00% + 28.83% Ljubljana 1,162.14 1,166 , 29 -0.36% +29.00% Zagreb 2025.50 2024.03% Belgrade +16.46.03% .BELEX15 800.88 801.40 -0.06% +6.98%> Sofia 578, 39,581.79 -0.58% +29.24% Yield Yield Spread Daily variation (bid) vs Bund variation in Czech spread 2 years 5 years 10 years Poland 2- years 5 years s 10 years s FORWARD 3×6 6×9 9×12 3M interbank Czech Republic Hungary Poland Note: FRA are for the asking prices ************************** ***************** *************** ************* (Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Anita Komuves in Budapest and Alan Charlish in Warsaw. Editing by Krishna Chandra Eluri)
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