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Home›Serbian banks›CEE MARKETS-FX, stocks rebound ahead of ECB policy meeting

CEE MARKETS-FX, stocks rebound ahead of ECB policy meeting

By Corey Owens
July 22, 2021
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    PRAGUE, July 22 (Reuters) - Central European currencies rebounded on
Thursday from losses marked this week as investors' risk aversion eased and
market focus turned to the European Central Bank (ECB), which is expected to
keep its stimulus taps fully open.
    While the ECB remains dovish and looks certain to promise an even longer
period of stimulus on Thursday to back commitment to boost inflation, strong
price pressures in central Europe have already prompted the Hungarian and Czech
central banks to raise interest rates, with more moves expected.
    Poland is yet to join the group, although analysts are waiting for cues it
could also turn to tighter policy sooner rather than later. 
    The zloty - under pressure this week like other units in central Europe by
concerns over the relentless surge in coronavirus cases worldwide - lagged gains
seen by the Hungarian forint and Czech crown this year.
    On Thursday, the zloty led the region higher, strengthening 0.2%
to 4.578 to the euro by 0842 GMT.
    "The risk of another wave of pandemic, as well as lower expectations for
domestic rate hikes suggest that the EUR/PLN pair will remain above 4.50 until
the end of the summer holidays," ING said. 
    "Later in the year, however, we expect the zloty to strengthen. We believe
that elevated inflation may prompt the (Polish central bank's) MPC to raise
rates in the coming months."
    Stock indexes in the region that hit record or multi-year highs in the past
month also rebounded with global stocks on bets of a dovish ECB.
    Currencies found support from the euro - the region's reference currency -
which stabilised off 3-1/2-month lows before the ECB meeting later due in the
day. 
    Any boost for the euro after the ECB could add to strengthening in the
region, a Prague dealer said.
    The crown was up at 25.64 per euro, trailing its 30-day moving
average of 25.57.
    The forint inched up 0.1% to 359.35 to the euro, aided by hawkish
comments from its central bank. Deputy Governor Barnabas Virag told financial
news website portfolio.hu in an interview published on Thursday that the bank
would continue its cycle of rate rises.
    The forint has stuck in a tight range around 360 in recent trading and
dealers say it will likely hang there until the Hungarian central bank meets
next week.
    
                   CEE         SNAPSHOT   AT                       
                   MARKETS               1042 CET           
                                                                   
                   CURRENCIES                                      
                               Latest    Previous  Daily    Change
                               bid       close     change   in 2021
 EURCZK  Czech                  25.6400   25.6900   +0.20%   +2.30%
 =       crown                                              
 EURHUF  Hungary               359.3500  359.6900   +0.09%   +0.94%
 =       forint                                             
 EURPLN  Polish                  4.5775    4.5872   +0.21%   -0.40%
 =       zloty                                              
 EURRON  Romanian                4.9245    4.9244   -0.00%   -1.21%
 =       leu                                                
 EURHRK  Croatian                7.5290    7.5245   -0.06%   +0.25%
 =       kuna                                               
 EURRSD  Serbian               117.5300  117.6050   +0.06%   +0.03%
 =       dinar                                              
         Note:     calculated                      1800            
         daily     from                            CET      
         change STOCKS                                          
                               Latest    Previous  Daily    Change
                                         close     change   in 2021
 .PX     Prague                 1195.95  1188.120   +0.66%   +16.43
                                                0                 %
 .BUX    Budapest              47933.71  47882.56   +0.11%   +13.84
                                                                  %
 .WIG20  Warsaw                 2251.02   2241.97   +0.40%   +13.46
                                                                  %
 .BETI   Buchares              11916.15  11913.24   +0.02%   +21.52
         t                                                        %
 .SBITO  Ljubljan               1133.93   1132.15   +0.16%   +25.87
 P       a                                                        %
 .CRBEX  Zagreb                 1917.01   1918.48   -0.08%   +10.22
                                                                  %
 .BELEX  Belgrade                772.39    770.59   +0.23%   +3.18%
 15                                                         
 .SOFIX  Sofia                   565.92    563.18   +0.49%   +26.45
                                                                  %
                                                                   
                   BONDS                                           
                               Yield     Yield     Spread   Daily
                               (bid)     change    vs Bund  change
                                                            in
         Czech                                              spread
         Republic                                           
 CZ2YT=    2-year                1.4230    0.0040   +214bp    +0bps
 RR                                                      s  
 CZ5YT=    5-year                1.6380   -0.0230   +232bp    -3bps
 RR                                                      s  
 CZ10YT                                                 s  
         Poland                                                    
 PL2YT=    2-year                0.4080    0.0250   +112bp    +2bps
 RR                                                      s  
 PL5YT=    5-year                1.0880    0.0010   +177bp    +0bps
 RR                                                      s  
 PL10YT                                                 s  
                                                                   
                   FRA                                             
                               3x6       6x9       9x12     3M
                                                            interba
                                                            nk
         Czech             

Hungary Poland Note: FRA quotes are for ask prices **************************************** ********************** (Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Alicja Ptak in Warsaw, and Anita Komuves in Budapest, Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

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