CEE MARKETS-FX stable, most stocks gain as PMI data shows robust recovery

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By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, July 1 (Reuters) – Central European currencies were little changed in restricted trading on Thursday, while new PMI data from the region showed a robust economic recovery from the pandemic, readings from Poland and the Czech Republic reaching record highs. Czech manufacturing sentiment rose to 62.7 in June, its highest level since data collection began two decades ago. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion in activity. Hungary’s seasonally adjusted PMI index reached 54.7 in June, from 53.1 revised in May. Poland’s PMI also hit a new all-time high of 59.4 in June. âThe June PMI reading supports our scenario of rising interest rates (in Poland) at the end of the year,â Bank Millennium said in a note. “However, (the probability of) no interest rate change until mid-2022 is also quite high.” Despite the conciliatory messages from the Polish central bank, some analysts and traders see a likelihood of political tightening in Poland sooner than expected after the Hungarian and Czech central banks raised rates last week to fight inflation. However, a weaker-than-expected flash CPI estimate on Wednesday cooled Polish rate hike expectations. The Polish central bank is holding its next rate-setting meeting next Wednesday. A debate over a rate hike is also gaining momentum in Romania, Commerzbank wrote in a note. “Will the Monetary Policy Committee remain convinced that the surge in inflation is only temporary? If so, the RON (Romanian leu) could be disappointed given market rate fantasies” , said Commerzbank. Romania’s central bank is also holding its rate-setting meeting next Wednesday. Most stocks in the region gained after two consecutive losing sessions. Budapest grew by almost 1%, while Warsaw gained 0.8% and Bucharest rose 0.6%. Prague reversed the trend and lost 0.88%, weighed down by a drop of more than 6% in public service CEZ after the shares started trading without the right to a dividend. CEE SNAPSHO AT MARKETS T 1037 CET CURRENC IES Last previous daily change Change in the closing of the offer in 2021 EURCZK = Czech EURHUF = Hungary 0 EURPLN = Polish EURRON = Romania EURHRK = Croatia EURRSD = Serbian 0 Variation near variation 2021 .PX Prague 1142 , 75 1152.850 -0.88% +11.26 0% .BUX Budapes 47695.3 47238.09 +0.97% +13.27 t 1% .WIG20 Warsaw 2235.97 2218.41 +0.79 % + 12.70% .BETI Bucare 11,944.5 11,873.03 + 0.60% + 21.81 st 0% .SBITOP Ljublja <.sbitop na> % .CRBEX Zagreb 1964.86 1980.49 -0.79% + 12.97% .BELEX1 Belgrad <.belex1 e> . SOFIX Sofia 555.80 557.69 -0.34% + 24.19% Yield Yield Spread Daily variation (bid) vs Bund variation of the Czech spread Republished CZ2YT = R s CZ5YT = R s CZ10YT = s Poland PL2YT = R s PL5YT = R s PL10YT = s FORWARD 3×6 6×9 9×12 3M Czech interbank 1.03 1.33 1.59 0.66 Hungary Rep 1.50 1.85 2.01 1.05 Poland 0.30 0.52 0.72 0.21 ************************************* ********** ********* *********** (Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Agnieszka Barteczko in Warsaw; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta)
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