CEE MARKETS-Forint underperforms ahead of inflation data, rate hike hopes persist

By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, July 6 (Reuters) – The Hungarian forint weakened on Tuesday, underperforming its peers as markets considered the release of key inflation data this week amid a hawkish message from the vice-president governor of the central bank failed to support the currency. The forint slipped 0.42% to 353.20 per euro, breaking out of the narrow 351-352 range where it has been stuck since the central bank raised its key rate on June 22. Liquidity was tight, traders in Budapest said. Investors were eagerly awaiting key June inflation data to be released on Thursday that could give markets a clue as to the extent of the next central bank rate hike, expected at the July rate meeting. âSome investors might try to weaken the forint ahead of the CPI data, counting on higher than expected inflation that will fuel rate hike expectations and boost the forint,â said one trader. “A weaker forint is a better entry point for them.” The currency strengthened on Monday shortly after central bank deputy governor Barnabas Virag said the bank would act decisively and in the fastest possible way to counter inflation risks, but then forfeited his earnings. The remarks “should have counted as a modest hawkish surprise,” but the forint failed to rally, writes Commerzbank. “The market reaction suggests some skepticism about the extent to which BNH will raise rates overall.” The Romanian leu was stable ahead of a central bank meeting on Wednesday where all analysts polled by Reuters expect the benchmark rate to remain unchanged at 1.25%. Five of the eight analysts expect a quarter point increase by the end of March. The Polish zloty also moved little as markets anxiously awaited the central bank’s rate decision on Thursday. Rate hikes in Hungary and the Czech Republic in June fueled expectations of an earlier-than-expected tightening in Poland as well, which has supported the zloty for the past two weeks. Shares in the region were mixed, with Bucharest up 0.55% while Warsaw gained 0.28%. Budapest slipped 0.1%. Markets in the Czech Republic have been closed for a public holiday. SNAPSHOT OF EEC MARKETS 1108 CET CURRENCI ES Last daily change previous bid closing change in 2021 Czech EURCZK 25.6000 25.5650 -0.14% + 2.46% = krone EURHUF Hungary 353.2500 351.7500 -0.42% + 2.68% = Polish EURPLN forint 4.5023 4.5030 + 0.02% +1.26% = EURRON Romania zloty 4.9262 4.9270 + 0.02% -1.24% = n leu EURHRK Croatia 7.4845 7.4883 + 0.05% + 0.84% ââ= n kuna EURRSD Serbian 117.4900 117.5850 + 0.08% + 0.07% = dinar Note: calculated from 1800 daily CET change Last Previous daily closing change in 2021 .PX Prague 1152.13 1152.130 + 0.00% + 12.17% 0 .BUX Budapes 47375.64 47423.61 -0.10% + 12.51% t .WIG20 Warsaw 2265.13 2258.82 + 0.28% + 14.17% .BETI Buchare 11962.25 11895.89 + 0.56% + 21.99% st .SBITO Ljublja 1130.89 1130.22 + 0.06% + 25.54% P na .CRBEX Zagreb 1971.38 1967.75 + 0.18% + 13.34% .BELEX Belgrad <.belex15 e> .SOFIX Sofia 544.73 552.02 -1.32% +21.72% Yield Yield Spread Daily variation (bid) vs Bund variation in the Czech Republic Spread CZ2YT = 2 years s CZ5YT = 5 years rs CZ10YT 10 years s Poland PL2YT = 2 years s PL5YT = 5 years s PL10YT 10 years s FORWARD 3×6 6×9 9×12 3M Czech interbank Hungary Poland Note: for the prices requested are the quotations FRA ********************************* ******* ****** ****************** (Report by Anita Komuves, edited by Ed Osmond)