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Home›Serbian banks›CEE MARKETS-Czech crown holds gains on rate hike bets as FX moves sideways

CEE MARKETS-Czech crown holds gains on rate hike bets as FX moves sideways

By Corey Owens
September 17, 2021
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WARSAW, September 17 (Reuters) – Central European currencies weakened widely and most stocks slumped on Friday, with weak global sentiment, although the Czech Koruna held near a more than a year and a half high on bets that the central bank could accelerate rate hikes.

The crown hit its highest level since February 2020 – when the COVID-19 pandemic began to rock markets – on Thursday after data showed producer price hikes and hawkish comments from a central banker.

CSOB said on Thursday that comments from Czech central bank vice-governor Marek Mora – who said in an interview with Bloomberg that the odds were approaching a higher 50 basis point rate hike at the next meeting policy this month – increased the chances that the bank could opt for a larger rate hike.

But the crown would still be caught in global business moods until more central bankers eventually comment, he said.

“Markets will be watching the results of the US Fed meeting (next week) as well as the German election (in September),” CSOB said.

The crown EURCZK = was up 0.1% to 25.304 per euro at 0844 GMT.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF = was stable at 351,170 per euro. The Polish zloty EURPLN = was at 4.582 per euro.

The zloty has lagged behind its peers as the Polish central bank maintains its loose policy despite inflation peaking in two decades.

Analysts expected the zloty to stabilize, despite uncertainty over interest rates and the EU’s delay in approving stimulus funds.

“We assume that the Polish currency will be stable after the last two days … but local factors will still have a negative impact,” Millenium Bank said in a note.

In June, the Czech and Hungarian central banks became the first in the European Union to raise interest rates to contain price pressures as economies recover from the pandemic.

The Czech bank wondered if rates were rising faster, which the markets are betting on.

In stock markets, Central European indices were mixed, Prague .PX the lead gains to 1306.53 while Warsaw .WIG20 fell 0.26% and .BUX up 0.07% at 8:55 a.m. GMT.

CEEC MARKETS

INSTANTANEOUS

At 1044 CET

COINS

Latest

Previous

Daily

Switch

offer

close

cash

in 2021

EURCZK =

czech crown

EURCZK =

25.3040

25.3270

+ 0.09%

+ 3.66%

EURHUF =

Hungarian forint

EURHUF =

351.2000

351.0700

-0.04%

+ 3.28%

EURPLN =

Polish Zloty

EURPLN =

4.5777

4.5777

-0.00%

-0.40%

EURRON =

leu in Romanian

EURRON =

4.9485

4.9480

-0.01%

-1.69%

EURHRK =

Croatian Kuna

EURHRK =

7.5090

7.5023

-0.09%

+ 0.51%

EURRSD =

Serbian dinar

EURRSD =

117.4800

117.5800

+ 0.09%

+ 0.08%

Note: daily change

calculated from

1800 CET

STOCKS

Latest

Previous

Daily

Switch

close

cash

in 2021

.PX

Prague

.PX

1306.18

1301.9800

+ 0.32%

+ 27.17%

.BUX

Budapest

.BUX

52345.41

52331.31

+ 0.03%

+ 24.31%

.WIG20

Warsaw

.WIG20

2352.81

2357.28

-0.19%

+ 18.59%

.BETI

Bucharest

.BETI

12291.29

12265.25

+ 0.21%

+ 25.35%

.SBITOP

Ljubljana

.SBITOP

1169.38

1169.31

+ 0.01%

+ 29.81%

.CRBEX

Zagreb

.CRBEX

1968.63

1968.69

-0.00%

+ 13.19%

.BELEX15

Belgrade

.BELEX15

801.48

799.44

+ 0.26%

+ 7.06%

.SOFIX

Sofia

.SOFIX

559.92

561.86

-0.35%

+ 25.11%

OBLIGATIONS

Yield

Yield

Broadcast

Daily

(offer)

cash

against the Bund

switch

Czech Republic

broadcast

CZ2YT = RR

2 years

CZ2YT = RR

1.9060

0.0320

+ 260bps

+ 3bps

CZ5YT = RR

5 years

CZ5YT = RR

2.0000

-0.0090

+ 260bps

-3bps

CZ10YT = RR

10 years

CZ10YT = RR

2.0310

0.0010

+ 231bps

-3bps

Poland

PL2YT = RR

2 years

PL2YT = RR

0.5220

-0.0850

+122 bp

-9bps

PL5YT = RR

5 years

PL5YT = RR

1.4920

0.0090

+ 209bps

-2bps

PL10YT = RR

10 years

PL10YT = RR

2.0420

-0.0080

+ 232bps

-4bps

ENG

3×6

6×9

9×12

3M Interbank

Czech Republic

CZKFRAPRIBOR =

1.96

2.54

2.78

1.12

Hungary

HUFFRABUBOR =

2.35

2.49

2.62

1.61

Poland

PLNFRAWIBOR =

0.46

0.76

1.01

0.24

Note: FRA quotes are for the prices requested

*************************************************** ************

(Reporting by Joanna Plucinska in Warsaw, Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Angus MacSwan)

((jason.hovet@thomsonreuters.com))

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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