CEE MARKETS-Czech crown holds gains on rate hike bets as FX moves sideways
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WARSAW, September 17 (Reuters) – Central European currencies weakened widely and most stocks slumped on Friday, with weak global sentiment, although the Czech Koruna held near a more than a year and a half high on bets that the central bank could accelerate rate hikes.
The crown hit its highest level since February 2020 – when the COVID-19 pandemic began to rock markets – on Thursday after data showed producer price hikes and hawkish comments from a central banker.
CSOB said on Thursday that comments from Czech central bank vice-governor Marek Mora – who said in an interview with Bloomberg that the odds were approaching a higher 50 basis point rate hike at the next meeting policy this month – increased the chances that the bank could opt for a larger rate hike.
But the crown would still be caught in global business moods until more central bankers eventually comment, he said.
âMarkets will be watching the results of the US Fed meeting (next week) as well as the German election (in September),â CSOB said.
The crown EURCZK = was up 0.1% to 25.304 per euro at 0844 GMT.
The Hungarian forint EURHUF = was stable at 351,170 per euro. The Polish zloty EURPLN = was at 4.582 per euro.
The zloty has lagged behind its peers as the Polish central bank maintains its loose policy despite inflation peaking in two decades.
Analysts expected the zloty to stabilize, despite uncertainty over interest rates and the EU’s delay in approving stimulus funds.
“We assume that the Polish currency will be stable after the last two days … but local factors will still have a negative impact,” Millenium Bank said in a note.
In June, the Czech and Hungarian central banks became the first in the European Union to raise interest rates to contain price pressures as economies recover from the pandemic.
The Czech bank wondered if rates were rising faster, which the markets are betting on.
In stock markets, Central European indices were mixed, Prague .PX the lead gains to 1306.53 while Warsaw .WIG20 fell 0.26% and .BUX up 0.07% at 8:55 a.m. GMT.
CEEC MARKETS
INSTANTANEOUS
At 1044 CET
COINS
Latest
Previous
Daily
Switch
offer
close
cash
in 2021
EURCZK =
czech crown
EURCZK =
25.3040
25.3270
+ 0.09%
+ 3.66%
EURHUF =
Hungarian forint
EURHUF =
351.2000
351.0700
-0.04%
+ 3.28%
EURPLN =
Polish Zloty
EURPLN =
4.5777
4.5777
-0.00%
-0.40%
EURRON =
leu in Romanian
EURRON =
4.9485
4.9480
-0.01%
-1.69%
EURHRK =
Croatian Kuna
EURHRK =
7.5090
7.5023
-0.09%
+ 0.51%
EURRSD =
Serbian dinar
EURRSD =
117.4800
117.5800
+ 0.09%
+ 0.08%
Note: daily change
calculated from
1800 CET
STOCKS
Latest
Previous
Daily
Switch
close
cash
in 2021
.PX
Prague
.PX
1306.18
1301.9800
+ 0.32%
+ 27.17%
.BUX
Budapest
.BUX
52345.41
52331.31
+ 0.03%
+ 24.31%
.WIG20
Warsaw
.WIG20
2352.81
2357.28
-0.19%
+ 18.59%
.BETI
Bucharest
.BETI
12291.29
12265.25
+ 0.21%
+ 25.35%
.SBITOP
Ljubljana
.SBITOP
1169.38
1169.31
+ 0.01%
+ 29.81%
.CRBEX
Zagreb
.CRBEX
1968.63
1968.69
-0.00%
+ 13.19%
.BELEX15
Belgrade
.BELEX15
801.48
799.44
+ 0.26%
+ 7.06%
.SOFIX
Sofia
.SOFIX
559.92
561.86
-0.35%
+ 25.11%
OBLIGATIONS
Yield
Yield
Broadcast
Daily
(offer)
cash
against the Bund
switch
Czech Republic
broadcast
CZ2YT = RR
2 years
CZ2YT = RR
1.9060
0.0320
+ 260bps
+ 3bps
CZ5YT = RR
5 years
CZ5YT = RR
2.0000
-0.0090
+ 260bps
-3bps
CZ10YT = RR
10 years
CZ10YT = RR
2.0310
0.0010
+ 231bps
-3bps
Poland
PL2YT = RR
2 years
PL2YT = RR
0.5220
-0.0850
+122 bp
-9bps
PL5YT = RR
5 years
PL5YT = RR
1.4920
0.0090
+ 209bps
-2bps
PL10YT = RR
10 years
PL10YT = RR
2.0420
-0.0080
+ 232bps
-4bps
ENG
3×6
6×9
9×12
3M Interbank
Czech Republic
CZKFRAPRIBOR =
1.96
2.54
2.78
1.12
Hungary
HUFFRABUBOR =
2.35
2.49
2.62
1.61
Poland
PLNFRAWIBOR =
0.46
0.76
1.01
0.24
Note: FRA quotes are for the prices requested
*************************************************** ************
(Reporting by Joanna Plucinska in Warsaw, Jason Hovet in Prague; Editing by Angus MacSwan)
((jason.hovet@thomsonreuters.com))
The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.
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