CEE MARKETS-Crown stable as markets expect another big rate hike

By Anita Komuves BUDAPEST, June 22 (Reuters) – Most Central European currencies were flat on Wednesday ahead of a Czech National Bank meeting in which policymakers are expected to hike further rate hike to try to curb rapid inflation. The krone edged down 0.03% to 24.697 per euro ahead of the meeting where a Reuters poll of analysts expects a 100bps or 125bps hike in the key repo rate over two weeks, now at 5.75%. The expectation of a sharp rate hike was one of the “reasons why the EUR-CZK remained more stable than other comparable currencies over the past month,” Commerzbank wrote in a note. “But as it is priced in, we do not expect further exchange rate appreciation from this result.” The krona has been the best performer among its CEE peers so far this year, as it has added more than 0.7% since the start of 2022. This will be the last CNB meeting before new governor Ales Michl don’t take over. Michl has consistently voted against rate hikes during the central bank’s one-year tightening cycle, which raised the policy rate by a total of 550 basis points. However, his promise not to raise rates again will be immediately tested by soaring inflation and a hawkish turn by major central banks. Elsewhere, the Hungarian forint edged up 0.1% to 394.00 per euro, while the Polish zloty slipped 0.35% to trade at 4.6535 against the common currency. “A regional source of volatility today could be the Czech central bank meeting,” Bank Millennium wrote. “Locally, this may also be a source of additional pressure on the Polish Monetary Policy Council, but we do not believe it is so strong that it can significantly affect the valuation of Polish assets.” Shares in the Central European region fell, trailing European peers lower, resuming a selloff that had hammered global equities last week. The Warsaw index fell by 2.33% while Budapest weakened by 1.7%. Prague lost 0.93% while Bucharest lost 0.3%. CEE MARKETS OVERVIEW 1003 CET CURRENCY MARKETS Last previous daily change 2022 supply close 0.03% +0.02 leu % Croatian 7.5170 7.5195 +0.03 +0.01 kuna % % Serbian 117.3400 117.4500 +0.09 +0.20 dinar % % 40241.32 40936.77 -1.70% -20.66% Warsaw 1678.92 1719.05 -2.33% -25.94% BUCHARST 12339.46 12377.09 -0.30% -5.53% LJUBLJANA 1131.05 1137.52 -0.57% -9.91% ZAGREB 2006.36.36. +0.81% Sofia 614.79 616.25 -0.24% -3.29% Yield Yield Spread Daily change (bid) vs Bund change in the Czech Republic 2-year spread 6.6710 -0.0050 +560b +6bps ps 5 years 6.1210 -0.0380 +466b +4bps ps 10 -year ps Poland 2 years 7.9270 -0.1400 +686b -7bps ps 5 years 7.9200 -0.1800 +646b -10bps ps 10 years ps FORWARD 3×6 6×9 9×12 3M interbank Czech Republic
Hungary Poland Note: FRA are for requesting quotes ***************************************** ************ ********* (Additional reporting by Pawel Florkiewicz in Warsaw; Editing by Sherry Jacob-Phillips)